My 2024 Division Predictions

Spring Training games are only 2 days away, and I'm making a 4-part series of predictions for 2024, with today's article being my division predictions, tomorrow's being postseason predictions, Friday being award predictions, and Saturday's being stat leader predictions.

New York Yankees - 95-67 (1st in AL East)

The AL East is still the toughest division in baseball, no matter what Dave Roberts says. It’s most likely going to be a year-long battle between the Yankees and the Orioles, but I think the Yankees have the slight edge, even if they don’t push forward in their pursuit of Blake Snell. Both teams made huge trades this offseason, with the Yankees acquiring Juan Soto, and the Orioles getting starter Corbin Burnes. It’ll be a fun year of baseball on the east coast.

Baltimore Orioles - 92-70 (2nd in AL East)

I basically broke down the Orioles when I talked about the Yankees, but it will be a close race. The Orioles clearly have the edge in young talent, with their core of Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, Heston Kjerstad and Jackson Holliday almost complete in the big leagues. I would expect to see Holliday called up in late July to early August, right after the All-Star break. Kjerstad got a cup of coffee in the big leagues last season, playing in 13 games, and as long as he lives up to standards in spring training this year, we should see him on the opening day roster for the O’s.

Toronto Blue Jays - 80-82 (3rd in AL East)

Many people would place the Rays in 3rd place, but I really feel like the Blue Jays are a better pick. Toronto’s core has pretty much lived up to its standards (except for Cavan Biggio, but we don’t talk about him) and their veteran acquisitions of the last few years have made them a playoff contender for a few years now. Tomorrow I’m going to post an article which includes a lengthier discussion of Alek Manoah’s chances to make a difference on the staff north of the border, and he’s looking much slimmer and much nastier than last year where he actually lost his spot on the team.

Tampa Bay Rays - 78-84 (4th in AL East)

It feels very weird placing the team that started last season 13-0 this low in any division, but the Rays absolutely regressed during 2023 and over the course of the offseason. They traded Tyler Glasnow and Manuel Margot to the Dodgers, and Glasnow actually ended up signing a contract in LA, ace Shane McClanahan is guaranteed to be out until 2025 as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and Wander Franco had his whole drama and likely will never play in MLB again. We all remember the Rays historic start to the 2023 season, but they did place second in the division and even lost in the Wild Card Round.

Boston Red Sox - 73-89 (5th in AL East)

Red Sox fans got hopeful when GM Chaim Bloom was fired and Craig Breslow took his place, but Breslow is clearly focused on the long-term outlook of the Red Sox, and not 2024. Still though, fans have a lot to be discontent with, as the former pitcher has come out specifically saying that he is open to trading closer Kenley Jansen this season, whose contract ends at the end of this season. The Red Sox signed closer Liam Hendriks yesterday morning, who will be out until after the All-Star break, but is presumably Jansen’s replacement in 2025. The Red Sox are developing a young core in Ceddanne Rafaela, Kyle Teel, Roman Anthony, and Marcelo Mayer, all of whom are expected to be with the big league club by the end of the year. So overall, the Red Sox are not a realistic playoff contender in 2024, but by 2025-2026, they could be division favorites. It just all depends on how Breslow plays his cards.

Minnesota Twins - 85-77 (1st in AL Central)

The AL Central is possibly the weakest division in baseball coming into 2024, and I think the Twins are the lucky team that will win it. Their big strength is pitching. They have plenty of rotation depth, starting with Pablo Lopez, and an elite closer in Jhoan Duran. On the offensive side of the spectrum, it will be a year to watch how Royce Lewis develops as a major leaguer. Carlos Correa should be as good as always, and it could be interesting to see if Alex Kirilloff can reignite any of the top prospect status he used to have. He put up an impressive .270 average in the 88 games he played with the big league team in 2023, as well as hitting 11 homers and drawing 28 walks.

Cleveland Guardians - 82-80 (2nd in AL Central)

The Guards kept closer Emmanuel Clase over the offseason, a move that surprised some, and are looking like the same team we saw coming out of last year. Good, but not great. Their big money man, Jose Ramirez, was still as productive as every last year, with 24 homers and a .282 batting average, and Steven Kwan will also be an on-base machine. I really don’t know how the Guardians have been able to consistently make the playoffs over the last 6-7 years.

Chicago White Sox - 75-87 (3rd in AL Central)

It’s shaping up to be another long summer on the south side. This club looks like one of the worst rebuild attempts of the last decade. The starting rotation should fare decently well, led by Michael Kopech, although they did lose Lucas Giolito to free agency. The bullpen is sub-par, and the offense is carried by Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez. A reunion with Tim Anderson seems impossible at this point (where did that guy even go?) but Andrew Benintendi and Yoan Moncada should be productive at least.

Detroit Tigers - 73-89 (4th in AL Central)

I think this could be the last rough year for Tigers fans. The big question marks here are whether former #1 overall draft pick Spencer Torkelson can replicate his outstanding 2nd half from 2023, and whether or not the Tigers will make an attempt to free themselves from the atrocious performances of Javier Baez over the last few years. He’s hitting .230 since joining the Tigers, and was bottom 1% in chase percentage (44.0%) and in the 12th percentile for whiff% (32.6%.) Those absolutely aren’t 23.3m a year numbers.

Kansas City Royals - 70-92 (5th in AL Central)

The Royals are a huge flier coming into this season. They reinvented their rotation by adding veteran starters in Seth Lugo, Jordan Lyles, and Michael Wacha. It will still be led by Cole Ragans, who came out of nowhere to be one of the best starters in the league in the last few months of 2023. Zack Greinke has completely fallen out of free agent talks, but he is still insisting that he wants to pitch this year. Bobby Witt Jr. is predicted to make a run at the AL OPotY award, and Hunter Renfroe could still be a productive baseball player if he keeps the strikeout numbers down.

Houston Astros - 101-61 (1st in AL West)

For a team that has made 7 straight ALCS appearances, the Astros STILL found a way to get better. I’m writing this article on Justin Verlander’s 41st birthday, so happy birthday, and it’s crazy to say but the Astros had one of the best rotations in the league back in 2018-2019, and one of the best rotations in the league now, but with only 2 of the same players (Verlander and Lance McCullers Jr.) and Verlander was off the team for half a year. The offense will still be led by now lifetime Astro, Jose Altuve, and new addition Josh Hader fixes the one minor hole that the team could have in the bullpen. The Astros are still alive and scarier than ever.

Texas Rangers - 97-65 (2nd in AL West)

The Rangers are an interesting team to place. Obviously they are the reigning World Series champions, but they didn't do a whole lot over the offseason. Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom won't be rejoining the team until later in the season, and that's clearly their biggest question coming into the season: whether they will be able to make a difference. Evan Carter came out of nowhere at the end of the season and in the postseason to make a huge splash, and it will be interesting seeing how he performs in his first full season in the major leagues.

Seattle Mariners - 87-75 (3rd in AL West)

Seattle got busy over the offseason, trading away previous top prospects and even acquiring some former stars. Jarred Kelenic got shipped to Atlanta, and they got Jorge Polanco in a trade with the Twins. The day after tomorrow, I'm going to post an article about my award predictions, and you're going to hear me talk very highly about my predictions for 2022 AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodriguez. He's likely going to make another push for the American League Player of the Year award, but the pitching staff probably isn't here at this point to be able to support a World Series run for the Mariners.

Los Angeles Angels - 82-80 (4th in AL West)

As the Angels head into the Brave New World without Shohei Ohtani, there doesn't even seem like any hope came during the offseason. Mike Trout is still there, but that's about it. If Trevor Bauer is able to sign with any MLB team, I think it will be in Anaheim, but that seems like a long shot seeing how the owners have been giving him the cold shoulder. I feel bad for Angels fans concerning Anthony Rendon, and how he went out 2 days ago and said that "baseball has never been a priority for me." The guy clearly doesn't want to be on the team, which seems disrespectful seeing how much money he got in free agency in 2020.

Oakland Athletics - 55-107 (5th in AL West)

It looks like another disheartening year is coming for the A's. The only Athletics news anyone cares about now is the stadium drama between John Fisher, Rob Manfred, and the mayors of Oakland and Las Vegas. They did try to bring in a couple washed up veteran starting pitchers in Ross Stripling and Alex Wood, but both of them are basically going to be mentors to the younger starters.

Atlanta Braves - 103-59 (1st in NL East)

It was interesting seeing what the Braves decided to do over the offseason. They traded away Vaughn Grissom, and received veteran Chris Sale in return. Sale seems healthy enough through what we've seen of him so far in camp, and that rotation is going to be pretty darn good, still led by Spencer Strider. They also added Jarred Kelenic, who is unpredictable to say the least, but a fine addition considering they also got Marco Gonzales in that trade with Seattle. Ronald Acuna Jr. hasn't shown any signs of being anything less than the historic player he was last year, and slotting him in the outfield with Michael Harris II and Kelenic should work just fine.

Philadelphia Phillies - 90-72 (2nd in NL East)

Phillies ownership listened to the fans and brought back Aaron Nola in free agency over the offseason, and this looks like the same fun ballclub that we've seen the last few years. The new thing here is Bryce Harper will be the everyday first baseman on the team, which we got a sneak preview of at the end of last season.

New York Mets - 82-80 (3rd in NL East)

This is going to be a make or break year for the Mets, as Pete Alonso enters his walk year. After the $374m disaster, Steve Cohen took a step back and traded Justin Verlander AND Max Scherzer, his veteran starters that he acquired over the 2022-23 offseason.

Miami Marlins - 74-88 (4th in NL East)

I'm calling it - the Marlins rebuild has already failed. They've made the playoffs a few times in the past few years by sheer luck, but with the pieces they lost over this past offseason, I really think that even they can't get lucky enough to run it back. Jazz Chisholm will forever be fun to watch, Eury Perez as well, but that's about all I can say.

Washington Nationals - 69-93 (5th in NL East)

The Nationals have been a distaster area ever since the miracle run of 2020, and I don't think it's getting much better for a few more years. Veterans have come and gone, here and there, ex-top prospects such as Jeter Downs have come and left again. Nobody on this team has had a lasting impact since the likes of Juan Soto and Bryce Harper. The only long standing vet on this team is Patrick Corbin, and he's been a distater area for 3-4 years now.

Milwaukee Brewers - 91-71 (1st in NL Central)

It doesn't take much to win the NL Central, and I think that the Brewers are going to be the lucky team that wins it. Jackson Chourio alone could turn any NL Central team a full 180 into a playoff contender, and even with the offseason loss of Corbin Burnes, the Brewers are still my favorite for the title coming into this year. Freddy Peralta has always been overshadowed by Burnes, so it should be nice to see him get a chance to shine as the real ace of this rotation, and Devin Williams should still be fine as the closer.

Pittsburgh Pirates - 85-77 (2nd in NL Central)

This is going to be one of my hotter takes of all of them. I think the Pittsburgh Pirates are going to be a Wild Card contender this year. They brought in Rowdy Tellez, they still have Andrew McCutchen, I think Henry Davis can fullfill the prophecy and be a staple at catcher for them, and maybe, just maybe, we see Paul Skenes leading this rotation come September.

St. Louis Cardinals - 78-84 (3rd in NL Central)

I feel for Cardinals fans. Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright, and Albert Pujols all gone within two years of eachother, and Miles Mikolas and Jordan Hicks never turned into the stars they were supposed to be. I still think that players the likes of Brenden Donovan, Lars Nootbaar, and Tommy Edman can still be solid contributers on the offensive side of things, and Willson Contreras is always going to be remembered in a bad light as the successor to Yadier Molina, much like Didi Gregorius was in New York following up the legendary career of Derek Jeter.

Chicago Cubs - 77-85 (4th in NL Central)

The Cubs are in a make-or-break year. If they aren't contending in July, you can be pretty safe in saying that Seiya Suzuki and Dansby Swanson are on the trade block. That might sound harsh to say, but the Cubs have random pieces floating around, not connecting. They put together a decent offseason, re-signing Cody Bellinger and signing Shoto Imanaga, but they did fail to re-sign Marcus Stroman. If the pieces don't come together by July, as I said, it might be a while before we see them contending again.

Cincinnati Reds - 75-87 (4th in NL Central)

The 2024 Cincinnati Reds' fate very well might fall on one player - Elly De La Cruz. At times we've seen Elly play like the best player on the planet, but other times like he's a 4 year old picking up a bat for the first time. The starting rotation isn't going to be doing the team any favors unless Nick Lodolo can break out finally. I've never see such a plethra of young busts on a single team, but if at least a few of them can muster up at least part of what they were once fabled to have in them, they might be able to do something late in the season.

Los Angeles Dodgers - 105-57 (1st in NL West)

We all kind of see this one coming from a mile away. The Dodgers just had the biggest offseason in baseball history, and I don't see anyone in this division beating them in the cards. You could see the Dodgers current rotation and it's one of the best in baseball, but then look at who isn't pitching to start the year, and it's literally one of the best in the history of the sport.

San Diego Padres - 90-72 (2nd in NL West)

The new schedule format that was introduced last year will probably highly benefit the Paders, as they won't have to play the Dodgers quite as much. It funny but sad to see how many superstar pieces the Padres have picked up over the last four years, but then look at how many playoff losses or misses they have.

Arizona Diamondbacks - 82-80 (3rd in NL West)

I don't think that anybody saw what the Diamondbacks did last year coming. I certainly didn't. And I really don't know what they might do in 2024. Really. I don't. So I won't say anything about it.

San Francisco Giants - 76-86 (4th in NL West)

The Giants made 2 big splashes (I'm sorry for that,) during this offseason, when they signed Korean free agent Jung-Ho Lee and 2023 Cy Young award winner Blake Snell. Logan Webb, who finished second in Cy Young voting last year to Snell, should slot nicely in for them.

Colorado Rockies - 69-93 (5th in NL West)

Some teams on this list are bad. Like, really bad. But all of those teams have some sort of hope, some super prospect that could come and save them or some franchise mainstay that's holding them down to earth. The Rockies, however, have none of that. No top 10 prospects, no long standing faces of the franchise, no nothing really. Kris Bryant has been severely disappointing for them, and he's even come out and all but said that he regrets signing there. That's got to hurt, Rockies fans. That's got to hurt a lot.